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Tuesday, March 12, 2013

Cars Resale Value forecasts: Next 2 years

In this blog entry, I'm going to post about Vehicles resale value by 2015.  What's up/unchanged and DOWN!  WARNING: This results might SHOCKED/PISSED Current Toyota and Perodua owners (At moment TOP 2 best resale Value Car makers).

This is based on my "RESEARCH" and Observations by "Collecting" OR Buying LAST 60 issues (OR 1 year+) of Motortrader Magazines, Surfing Mudah.my for bargains DAILY, checking out Star Metro classifieds Daily.  Ie.  NOT MAKE UP!  

Without further ado, here's results that will SHOCK YOU.  This is based on:

1)  ECONOMICS Supply/Demand theories. 
2) Warranties - 5 years/300,000km OR 5 years/ unlimited have the ADVANTAGE.
3) Reliability, Low maintenance.
4) Fun to drive factor (ie. won't get bored). 
5) After sales service, Spare parts costs and availability
6) Specifications/equipments of the car.  Stingy/Outdated: BOO!  Future proof, FEATURES PACKED: BETTER RESALE VALUE!
7) BUILD QUALITY!  Solidness!


BEARS aka. LOSERS (and reasons behind)

1) TOYOTA VIOS (Especially the "UGLY DUGONGS" 2007 - 2013) - Why!  
OVERSUPPLY.  Imagine average of 1800 units sold Monthly OR 130,000 UNITS SOLD FROM 2007 October till today.  

Note that I received 4 TRADE INS for VIOS in 3 months.  ALL FOR (to buy) NEW Hyundai ELANTRA. There were 2 GOOD ones (2003 to 2007) and 2 "DUGONGS".  It's so many that I turned down 3 of them recently.  Adding salt to its wounds, these OWNERS still thought their VIOS RESALE VALUE's INCREDIBLE.  Eg. a 2009 Vios G owned by Chai Mey Hoong (proof that I didn't make up) owner asking for AT LEAST RM60,000.  A 2008 Dugong Vios S-spec owner expecting AT LEAST 60,000.  THIS NO LONGER HAPPENS Dear VIOS DUGONG Owners due to OVERSUPPLY!  A trip to 3 of my favourites USED car dealers = AT LEAST 10 DUGONGS waiting for Buyers. 

The Law of Economics comes in for next 2 years.  By then TONNES of DUGONG VIOS will be upgrading or selling off their cars.  Let's say 30% of the 130,000(!) DUGONG VIOS OWNERS = 39,000 out for sale.  The problem I predicted: ONLY 1/3 or 13,000 will have BUYERS.  Hence, Resale Value price SHALL SUFFER.  Please take my words and COME BACK in 2015 to agree with me!

2) PERODUA MYVI: Why?  See No.1 (DUGONG VIOS), Same theory except this is WORSE!  There's almost 300,000 units of MYVIS Running on Malaysian roads.  Enough Said.

3) MOST NISSAN except LEAF (coming this year) and NV200 Vans).  Why?  STINGY Warranties (still 3 years!), STINGY Specifications - NOT FUTURE PROOF, ALL THE SEDANS no SPLIT/FOLDING REAR Seat-backs and NARROW BODY (From Almera to Teana - you'll struggle to fit 3 "LARGE" Adults (ie. 90kg above) side by side behind COMFORTABLY.  No need to wait till 2015!  Nissan Sylphy, Latios and TEANA already showing WORSE-DEPRECIATION-THAN-HYUNDAI and KIAS today!  Eg. 2011 Teana 2.5 V6, New 173,000.  Today: RM125,000 (depreciated so much in 2 years).  You think it's unfair to compare a D-segment?  Fine, take SYLPHY: A New FULL SPEC one costs RM120,000 back in 2010.  Today, a 2010 example costs ONLY RM78,000 NEGOTIABLE!  As a comparison, a 2010 KIA FORTE costs RM97,000 when NEW, today's PRICE: RM69,000 Negotiable!  Note the Difference in Depreciation!

4) AND OTHER CARS with 3 years OR Below warranties, Stingy specifications, OLD Technology (take my word, CURRENT CAMRY shall Suffer HUGE DEPRECIATIONS in next 36 months due to 2.0 stingy and Dinosaur specs (Still 4 speed Auto!) and 2.5 = Higher road tax AND WITHOUT VSC (Traction control).  In fact, the 2007 to 2012 Camry shall HOLD its VALUE Better.  Ie. better resale value.  Consumers shopping for this segment feels shortchanged!!!

ENOUGH OF THE NEGATIVES, Let's proceed to the BULLS aka. WINNERS! Warning, this will SHOCK YOU!

1) ALL MAZDA CARS!  Why?
5 years warranty with 3 years free Maintenance in MOST Mazdas.  Excellent After-sales service by BERMAZ, FUTURE PROOF, MEGA SPECIFICATIONS CARS, LONG WAITING LISTS due to Insufficient APs or CKD Kits from Japan (for Mazda 3 and upcoming CX5).  Ie. the OPPOSITE of DUGONG VIOS, Demand outstrips SUPPLY!

2) HYUNDAI, Especially the ELANTRA MD!!! 
 The i10 1.25 CVVT ONLY (2011 facelift onwards - better fuel consumption and power), Veloster, Tucson, Starex - Basically MOST Hyundais have 5 years/300,000km warranties which helps BOOSTING the RESALE VALUES.

Eg. A 2010 Hyundai Tucson 2.0 High-spec costs RM136,000.  Today, a 3 years old example costs Averaging RM98,000 - (Trade in price RM90,000 and End-user price RM105,000!).  THIS IS AS GOOD AS 2007 to 2013 HONDA CRV!  Like Mazda, DEMAND OUTSTRIPPED SUPPLY again, lacks of AP (restricted).

3) MOST FORD CARS:  Eg. FORD FIESTA, FOCUS, RANGERS, Escape except the CURRENT MONDEO (the 2.3 ones NEW 2010 costs RM178,000, today's price: RM98,000 STILL NEGOTIABLE).  Other than the MONDEO, Most Fords are MEGA-Specced, FUTURE Proof (look at the Fiesta and FOCUS), GENEROUS 3 years/60,000 free maintenance and 5 years WARRANTIES!  Demand outstrips SUPPLY!

UNCHANGED:

1) ALL HONDA CARS - The CIVIC FD (only), Hybrids and City (Current model) will retain it's value WELL!

2) Certain Toyotas: Eg. 2007 to 2012 Toyota Camry with VSC, 2003 to 2007 Vios (The Stylish Vios), Toyota Altis, Hilux, 86 AND Toyota Hybrids.  

3) MERCEDES BENZ Cars EXCEPT those above 2600cc (eg. S-class, M-class).  The name says it all.  Highly desirable.

4) BMW, Volkswagen, Audi and ALL OTHER CAR-makers!

That's all folks, thanks for having the time and patience to read this blog entry.  Jefferson Lim's ORIGINAL RESEARCH!

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

The Ford focus n fiesta might not be doing well in RV as the PowerShift (DSG / duel clutch ) are unreliable, prompt to overheat n failed.

As for the rest, I so agree with you.
Great post and very educative!! THANKS.

Anonymous said...

Quite spot on with the "losers" though we can't be sure about the others as things might change with the revised NAP expected to be announced in June 2012.

Raimy said...

To original poster,

Now in 2016, what are your thoughts on the cars with best resale value here in Malaysia?

Jefferson Lim said...

http://otoreview.blogspot.my/2015/12/presenting-top-40-best-vehicles-resale.html

See the above... Updated 22/12/15.